臨牀消化器内科 Vol.18 No.5(4-2)


特集名 原発性胆汁性肝硬変 -- 最近の話題
題名 原発性胆汁性肝硬変の予後 (2) 日本における長期予後の推移と病期進展の要因
発刊年月 2003年 05月
著者 仲野 俊成 関西医科大学大学情報センター医療情報部
著者 廣原 淳子 関西医科大学内科学第三講座
著者 有田 清三郎 関西医科大学数学教室
【 要旨 】 原発性胆汁性肝硬変(PBC)全国調査をもとに,本邦におけるPBCの病態と長期予後,病期進展要因について検討した.臨床像は従来の報告と大きな差異は認められなかったが,5年生存率は診断時s2-PBCで若干改善していた.診断日をもとに1990年で2群に分け年代別予後解析を行うと,a,s1および軽~中等度のs2-PBCで,1990年群は1980年群に比して予後良好であった.a-PBCのうちs2-PBC進展群は,非進展群に比較して予後不良であり,多変量解析から診断時血清総ビリルビン値,アルブミン値,総コレステロール値,組織学的病期,ウルソデオキシコール酸使用の有無が判別有意因子として選択され,予後不良群を判別するために有用と思われた.
Theme Primary Biliary Cirrhosis : update 2003
Title Long-term Prognosis for Primary Biliary Cirrhosis (PBC) in Japan and Analysis of Factors Related to Stage Progression
Author Toshiaki Nakano Division of Medical Informatics, University Information Center, Kansai Medical University
Author Junko Hirohara Third Department of Internal Medicine, Kansai Medical University
Author Seizaburou Arita Department of Mathematics, Kansai Medical University
[ Summary ] Based on data from a national survey (survey period: 1980-2001) of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC), the pathology and prognosis of PBC in Japan were both elucidated. There were no significant differences in clinical findings from those in previous reports. The five year survival rates for patients with a-PBC, s1-PBC, and s2-PBC at the time of diagnosis were 97%, 89%, and 54%, respectively, showing that the survival rate of patients with s2-PBC was slightly improved in relation to previous study. As a result of examining changes in the prognoses for PBC patients, there was a significant difference between the 1980s groups and 1990s groups for a-PBC, s1-PBC and mild and/or moderate s2-PBC. Patients with a-PBC at the time of diagnosis were divided into groups: those in whom the disease progressed to s2-PBC and did not progress to s2-PBC at the final examination. Prognoses were compared between the groups. The prognoses were significantly poorer in the s2-PBC progression group. As a result of multivariate analysis for prediction of prognoses, levels at diagnosis of total serum bilirubin, albumin, total cholesterol, histological stage, and presence or absence of ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA) administration were selected as significant factors, considered useful as early prognostic indicators in patients diagnosed as having a-PBC whose prognosis might deteriorate and progress to s2-PBC.
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